Prospects for Conventional Arms Control in Europe by Joachim Krause

Author:Joachim Krause [Krause, Joachim]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Nonfiction, Social & Cultural Studies, Political Science, International, International Relations
ISBN: 9781000308389
Google: hHCaAAAAIAAJ
Goodreads: 5367895
Publisher: Taylor and Francis
Published: 1988-01-01T00:00:00+00:00

At this point in time it would be premature to discuss the pros and cons of such concepts. However, it will be imperative for any future conventional stability talks to include CBMs able to increase warning time for a defender.

To sum up, CBMs will play a definite role in both future East-West talks and discussions among the thirty-five CSCE participants. They could have either a direct impact on stability or they could complement other measures such as force with drawals, reductions or limitations. Nevertheless, the potential of CBMs to make significant contributions towards stability is limited. It is mainly constraint measures that offer a theoretical way to impede non-nuclear surprise or short-warning attacks. Their implementation, however, is fraught with so many problems and pitfalls that it is highly unlikely that an East West accord on substantial constraint CBMs will be concluded. Under some circumstances, the basic approach of constraint CBMs could actually increase uncertainty and might only shift the military competition to other areas. Most efforts therefore should be directed at creating CBMs that help a defender gain more warning time against an aggressor whose success depends for the most part on undetected, time-critical preparations.

As in the case of force withdrawals, reductions and limitations, the issue is how to arrive at CBM proposals that are negotiable. Again, the sticking point is that the West is primarily playing the role of demandeur, with NATO having hardly anything to offer in return for Eastern concessions. One way to resolve this problem could be to depart from the traditional method of creating only CBMs that are to be applied simultaneously on both sides. Under some circumstances it might be better for East and West—and the neutral/nonaligned nations too—to suggest specific measures one or the other country or coalition could undertake to reduce options for surprise attacks or short-term preparation attacks. Unilateral CBMs could then be traded against each other. Whether such an extended CBM approach will turn out to be more effective has to be clarified. In any case, it could prove worthwhile to test further flexibility.

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